The Winners

Tony Stewart: Stewart survived mayhem throughout the race to steal the victory away from champions Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.  This win has moved Stewart to second place in the championship points standings.  After being told that he is just eight points behind Edwards, Stewart replied, “He better be worried, that’s for sure. He isn’t going to have an easy three weeks.”  This is Stewart’s 42nd career win and his third win of the season, all of which came in the Chase.

Carl Edwards: Edwards may not have won the race, but finishing in ninth position felt like a win after his misfortune during the race.  Due to qualifying being rained out, Edwards started the race in the pole position.  He lost the lead on Lap 27 under caution when he pitted and seven or more cars behind him stayed out.  From that point on, he kept losing positions and by lap 167 he dropped to 17th position.  After pitting under caution on Lap 197, Edwards restarted the race in 26th due to a lug nut getting hung up behind the wheel.

He fell a lap down twice during the race, but was able to take advantage of the lucky dog rule twice.  Thanks to the high number of cautions in the race, Edwards was able to gain positions back and was in the Top 10 with 22 laps to go.  Edwards ultimately finished the race in ninth position, retaining the points lead by eight over Stewart.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick started the race in fifth position and ran in the Top 10 for most of the race.  He took the lead of the race under caution after pitting for just two tires with 102 laps to go.  On Lap 438 Johnson took the lead from Harvick with teammate Gordon following close behind.  Harvick was then bumped to fourth position late in the race when Stewart made a mad dash to the lead.  Harvick finished the race in fourth and gained himself two spots in standings.  He is now third place in points, 21 points behind leader Edwards.

Dale Earnhardt Jr:  Earnhardt put on a show for his fans at Martinsville with his have at it attitude and aggressive racing style.  Unlike many drivers, he kept saying on his team radio how much “fun” he was having during the race.  On Lap 8, he was involved in a pile up involving Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon, revoking him of his Top 10 position, dropping him to 34th place.  He quickly made his way through the pack and finished the race in seventh position.  Although he remains ninth in points, overall he had a good race and put on quite a show for the fans.

The Losers

Brad Keselowski: The most disappointed driver of the day would have to be Brad Keselowski.  After starting in the Top 5, he was a top runner all race long and was heading towards a good points day.  His Top 10 finish, however, disappeared in just one lap. While running in seventh place with two laps to go,  Keselowski was spun by another car and a caution was not thrown, causing him to drop from seventh to 17th position.

This finish has dropped him one spot in standings to fourth position, 27 points behind Edwards.  Keselowski needs to win the race at Texas Motor Speedway next weekend to have any kind of chance at staying in this points battle.  Last year, Keselowski clinched his Nationwide Series championship at Texas Motor Speedway. He typically runs well at intermediate tracks.  I wouldn’t count him out of this championship battle just yet.

Matt Kenseth: After starting in second position, Kenseth ran in the Top 10 for most of the race.  With 36 laps to go, he made contact with Kyle Busch, sending him to the garage for repairs.  When he came back onto the track, he was then wrecked by Brian Vickers, who retaliated against Kenseth for spinning him out with 43 laps to go.  This resulted in a 31st place finish.  Kenseth is now fifth place in standings, 36 points behind Edwards.

Kyle Busch: After leading a race high of 128 laps, Kyle Busch’s strong run evaporated with 37 laps to go.  Kenseth locked his tires up going into the turn, causing him to slam Busch, spinning him out.  He then pitted to fix the damage. While leaving pit road, his left front tire came completely off the car.  Apparently there was a lack of communication with the team on whether they were supposed to put the tire on or off.  Either way, this caused Busch to finish in 27th position.  This finish dropped him one position in standings to seventh, 57 points behind the leader.

Brian Vickers: Out of the 18 cautions that occurred during the race, Vickers was involved in five of them, including three just in the first 100 laps.  I think the only thing Vickers didn’t hit was the pace car.  Needless to say, he did not have many friends at the end of the race.  He finished the race, with what was left of his No. 83 Toyota, in 30th position.  With Red BullRacing leaving the sport at season’s end, Vicker’s future is in doubts.

Chase for the Sprint Cup

1. Carl Edwards, 2. Tony Stewart (-8), 3. Kevin Harvick (-21), 4. Brad Keselowski (-27), 5. Matt Kenseth (-36), 6. Jimmie Johnson (-43), 7. Kyle Busch (-57), 8. Kurt Busch (-58), 9. Dale Earnhardt Jr (-73), 10. Jeff Gordon (-76), 11. Denny Hamlin (-80), 12. Ryan Newman (-89)

Dega Wreaks Havoc on Chasers

On Lap 174, Michaeal Waltrip was pushing Bobby Labonte when Labonte lost control of his race car and spun in the middle of the turn.  Kurt Busch had no where to go and drove straight into the side panel of Labonte.  This destroyed the hood of Busch’s race car and ended his day.  The elder Busch brother finished the race in 36th position, 15 laps down.  This did not help his chances for the championship, knocking him down one spot in standings to eighth place, 52 points behind the leader.

Luckily for Kurt Busch, he isn’t the only Chase driver that struggled at Talladega.  Hendrick Motorsports’ Chasers did not finish as expected on Sunday, coming home with 25th (Dale Earnhardt Jr), 26th (Jimmie Johnson), and 27th (Jeff Gordon) place finishes.  All three drivers rode out the race in the back of the pack and just didn’t seem to have the momentum to race towards the front at the end.

Earnhardt remains in ninth position in standings, 74 points behind the leader.  Thanks to others’ misfortune, Johnson moved up one position to seventh place, but is now 50 points behind the leader.  Jeff Gordon also moved up one position; however, he is now 82 points behind the leader.   I would say this is the end of Hendrick Motorsports’ chances to win the title.  Johnson would be the only driver with a chance, but he would need the drivers ahead of him in the Chase to have substantial bad luck to overtake them.

Kevin Harvick came to Talladega only five points behind leader Carl Edwards.  Leaving Talladega, he is in fifth position, now 26 points behind the leader.  Early on in the race, Harvick had a fast car; he even led the race on six different occasions.  But, he fell victim to a large pile-up on Lap 104 when AJ Allmendinger spun on the front-stretch. Harvick finished the race in 32nd position, nine laps down.

Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Joey Logano worked well together early in the race.  On Lap 67, as the duo was attempting to make green flag pit stops, Trevor Bayne cut in front of them, abruptly separating the pair.  This caused Logano to spin his race car and forced Busch to drive down pit road to avoid an accident.  Logano then blew a left-front tire on the backstretch, bringing out the caution. Busch was then sent to the rear of the field for failure to reduce speed while driving down pit road.

Busch was able to recover, leading the race on Lap 90 with help of his teammate, Denny Hamlin.  After the pile-up on Lap 104, however, Busch was unable to race his way to the front and finished the race in 33rd position.  Logano on the other hand, was able to push Tony Stewart to the lead of the race on Lap 136, despite the damage to his race car. Logano finished the race in 24th position.  Busch is now sixth in standings, 40 points behind the leader.

Chase for the Sprint Cup

Carl Edwards remains the points leader after finishing in 11th position at Talladega.  Fellow Roush driver Matt Kenseth sits second, 14 points behind Edwards.  Brad Keselowski gained three spots in the standings, moving to third, just 18 points back.  Tony Stewart moved up to fourth position after finishing the race in seventh place and is now 19 points behind Edwards.

Both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch dropped positions because of their misfortune and are now in fifth and sixth position.  Rivals Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson are now right beside each other in standings, sitting in eighth and ninth position.  Dale Jr and Jeff Gordon round out the top-10 in ninth and tenth positions, respectively.  Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman reside in 11th and 12th place, respectively.

Best Efforts of the Race

The Red Bull Racing team of Brian Vickers and Kasey Kahne have to be recognized for their effort on Sunday.  Kahne started 26th, Vickers 30th, and the two pushed their way into the top-five within 10 laps.  They had troubles with the two-car tandem on Lap 159, causing Kahne to spin across the nose of Vickers to bring out a caution.  But with 50 laps to go, the pair had already hooked back up and were headed to the front.  Unfortunately they just couldn’t catch the RCR tandem, but still came home with fifth (Vickers) and sixth (Kahne) place finishes.

Dave Blaney’s third place finish at Talladega represented Tommy Baldwin’s Racing’s best finish yet at the Cup level.  Blaney was in the battle at the front in both the Daytona 500 and the spring race at Talladega this year, but couldn’t get the finishes he deserved.  This is a big step for a small organization with a short history in the sport.  Team owner Tommy Baldwin hopes the Talladega finish is a step in the right direction for a more competitive season in 2012.

Landon Cassill and Casey Mears deserve a shout-out for their strong effort at Talladega.  Before the race had even one lap in the books, Mear’s No. 13 GEICO Camry had moved from its 42nd starting position into 26th.  On Lap 3, Mears paired up with Cassill to head to the front.  They spent most of the race in the Top 5 and Top 10 until lap 174 when Mears lost his drafting partner.  Cassill was collected in a turn two crash involving Bobby Labonte and Kurt Busch, forcing Mears to find another dancing partner.  Although their finishes of 16th and 17th do not represent their hard effort, the fact that they survived Talladega tells the story by itself!

Johnson is now eighth on the all-time wins list with this victory, tying Rusty Wallace’s 55 wins.  Chevrolet has now claimed the manufacturers championship for the season, their 35th championship overall.  Johnson led the race from lap 24 and dominated the field the entire race.  He had to beat his future teammate Kasey Kahne, who finished the race in second place.  Critics who doubted the No. 48 team are now retracing their statements and tucking their tail between their legs.

You can never count out five-time champion Jimmie Johnson.  Before the race at Kansas, the No. 48 team was in the midst of 21 race winless streak.  Many drivers go over 100 races without a win, yet the media was concerned with 21 for Johnson?  The battle for this championship gets more intense every week and you definitely can’t count out Johnson for this championship title.

Keselowski Stays Consistent

Brad Keselowski keeps up his consistent finishes after finishing second at Kansas Speedway.  He moved up to the fourth position in the standings, just 11 points behind the leader.  Keselowski has finished in the top-5 three out of the past four races.  Although he finished in 20th position last weekend at Dover, he overcame power steering issues to finish strong.

Like I’ve said before, Keselowski is one of the biggest contenders for this championship.   He never gives up and has consistent finishes every week.  He came into the Chase as the underdog and will leave it as the champion, or as the driver who gave the champion a run for his money.

Carl Edwards Takes Over Points Lead

Leaving Dover last week Carl Edwards was tied with Kevin Harvick for the points lead, in second position.  He is now leading the standings, one point ahead of Harvick.  Edwards salvaged a fifth place finish at Kansas after falling a lap down during the race.  In post-race interviews Edwards said that he felt like he won the race.  Managing to finish in the top-5 after overcoming such obstacles is a big accomplishment for the No. 99 team.

Dale Earnhardt Jr Just Wants to Win a Race

After the race at Kansas, Dale Earnhardt Jr is leaving with a different mind-set.  ”I just want to win a race,” he said. “That’s a goal of mine right now, is to just go out there and win. Man, if we could do that, no matter what happened in the Chase I think we’d be real happy with our season”.

Earnhardt seemed to have a fast car throughout the race, but wasn’t happy with his tires.  He said during the race that the various sets of Goodyear tires were inconsistent, and he couldn’t figure out why.  Earnhardt finished the race in 14th position.  He gained one spot in points, moving to ninth position.

Gordon’s Chase Hopes Take A Big Hit

Although Gordon ran in the top-10 for most of the race, he was never happy with how his car was handling.  With 23 laps to go, Gordon noticed smoke coming from underneath the hood.  The team knew it was a matter of time before their day was over.  With two laps to go, the engine expired, leaving Gordon with a 34th place finish.  His finish dropped him down to 10th position in the points.

Being 47 points behind the leader, are Gordon’s championship hopes over?  With just six races left in the season, Gordon would need a miracle to win the championship.  However, if the drivers ahead of him in points were to finish poorly in the last few races and Gordon was to finish top-5 every week, he may still have a chance.  With the points battle being so close this season, he still has a small chance.

Chase for the Sprint Cup

As we head to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the fifth race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Carl Edwards is now your points leader.  Kevin Harvick lost the points lead, but only by one point, leaving him in second place.  Johnson gained two positions and is now in third place,  just four points behind Edwards.  Keselowski and Matt Kenseth both gained two positions, now sitting in fourth and fifth place, respectively.

Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart both dropped positions in standings and now are sixth and seventh place, respectively.  Kyle Busch remains in eighth position and is now 20 points behind the leader.  Earnhardt gained one position, moving him to ninth position with his teammate Gordon in 10th.  Newman and Hamlin’s chase hopes are no longer viable, sitting in 11th and 12th position, more than 50 points behind the leader.

Busch said after the race, “To beat your arch nemesis, that’s just icing on the cake.  It’s pretty sweet.”  He moved up five positions in standings, to fourth position.  Busch is just nine points behind leader Kevin Harvick, currently tied with Tony Stewart.

I think critics overlook Busch as a championship contender because of his recent erratic behavior and rivalry with Jimmie Johnson; however he has finished in the Top-10 in four of the last five races and has been consistent all season long.  If he can control his temper and keep his head in the game, I believe he will be a top contender for the Sprint Cup title.

Rough Day For Chase Contenders

Tony Stewart told media that Dover would be a tough race for his team, and he predicted it correctly.  Stewart started the race in 28th position and finished the race in 25th, two laps down.  If you look at statistics for Stewart at Dover, he has finished 21st or worse in the past three races, so his struggles at the Monster Mile in this race weren’t a shock.  His bad day cost him the points lead, dropping him to third place in standings.

Luck was not on Dale Earnhardt Jr’s side at Dover.  He started the race in 21st position and looked as if he had a competitive racecar.  Shortly after the first caution of the race, Earnhardt realized on the restart that something wasn’t right with the car.  He was forced to pit with a broken sway bar.  This put him back in 41st position, racing three other drivers for the Lucky Dog.  On the competition caution on Lap 40, Earnhardt received the Lucky Dog and rallied back to 15th position by Lap 190.

Unfortunately, his bad luck didn’t stop there.   Dale Jr was forced to pit on Lap 271 for a loose wheel, putting him two laps down.  This relegated Earnhardt to a 24th place finish, two laps down.  He is now 10th place in standings, 34 points behind the leader.  Does this eliminate Junior for the championship?  I wouldn’t count him out just yet.  He has good statistics at many of the races left in the season, and has plenty of time to make it up. But, it certainly doesn’t bode well for him.

Brad Keselowski and his Penske Racing team struggled throughout the race, leaving them with a 20th place finish.  Just after Lap 250, Keselowski came down pit road after running over debris, forcing the team to replace the power steering belt.  Keselowski eventually fell two laps down behind the leaders, leaving him racing for the Lucky Dog position.

With 48 laps to go, Mike Bliss crashed down the backstretch, bringing out the caution.  Keselowski was in the Lucky Dog position, gaining one of his laps back.  Shortly after that, caution came out again with 40 to go, getting him back on the lead lap.  Keselowski doesn’t have good statistics at Dover, with an average finish of 17th position.  I think the No. 2 team can shake this off and will be back at the top of the standings before we know it.

Points Standings Leaving Dover

With Stewart’s misfortune and Harvick’s Top-10 finish, Harvick is now tied with Carl Edwards for the points lead.  Stewart dropped two spots to third position, tied with Kurt Busch.  Johnson, finishing the race in second position, gained five positions in points to fifth place.  After a rough day for Keselowski, he has fallen three positions to sixth place, 14 points behind the leader.  Matt Kenseth is tied with Keselowski in seventh position.  Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon both dropped positions, leaving them in eighth and ninth position, respectively.  Dale Earnhardt Jr, Ryan Newman, and Denny Hamlin round out the Top 12.

There are just seven races left in the season with many opportunities for the point’s standings to be shaken up once again.  We head to Kansas Speedway next weekend for the Hollywood Casino 400.  Tune into ESPN on Sunday to watch the action unfold.

Junior Makes the Chase

Dale Earnhardt Jr was probably the most talked-about driver of the night.  He came to Richmond knowing he could make the chase and he knew he had the car to do it.  However, his chase hopes started to fade just eight laps into the race.

Clint Bowyer spun in Turn 4, trying to get under David Reutimann at the front of the pack. As the cars checked up, Earnhardt got into the back of Matt Kenseth. It’s hard to tell, but Earnhardt says he was pushed into Kenseth by Casey Mears, who may have been pushed into him by Marcos Ambrose. As Kenseth started to spin, Earnhardt went outside and made contact with Denny Hamlin, sending Hamlin into the wall. Earnhardt then turned to drive under the stopped car of Bowyer, but Bowyer rolled down the track and the two made contact.

This resulted in significant damage to the grill of the No. 88 Chevy, forcing him to pit multiple times under caution. The team fixed the car as best they could and kept Junior on the lead lap. But, because of the damage, Earnhardt had his hands full with an ill-handling car. Still, he was on a mission to make the Chase.

On lap 37, he made contact with wild card hopeful Marcos Ambrose, spinning Ambrose around. That really just looked like two guys going for the same real estate, but Earnhardt may not have lifted for Ambrose because he may have blamed Ambrose for the big wreck that put his Chase hopes in jeopardy.

Then, on lap 152, Travis Kvapil slammed the No. 88′s bumper.  Junior showed Kvapil how he felt about it.  He retaliated the following lap, sending Kvapil spinning in Turn 2 to bring out the caution.  Earnhardt would have been the Lucky Dog that caution, but wasn’t eligible since he contributed to bringing out the caution. After the race, according to reporters, Earnhardt Jr apologized to Denny Hamlin. But, as far as Kvapil, Earnhardt said he got what he deserved.

Earnhardt hovered around 10th place in the Sprint Cup Series standings for most of the race. At one point, he was only two points ahead of Brad Keselowski and from dropping out of the Chase.

To make the Chase, all Earnhardt Jr had to do was finish the race in 20th position or better.  After a hard fought battle, he finished 16th and secured his spot for the Chase.  “We just kept working it and trying to fix the car,” said Earnhardt after climbing out of his beaten car. ”But we worked on it and worked on it…I’m proud to be in the Chase. I feel like I’m a good enough driver to be in the Chase—my team is good enough to be there.”

He will enter the race at Chicagoland Speedway in 10th position, 12 points behind leader Kyle Busch.

Unlikely Feuds

With the second wild card for the Chase possibly up for grabs, Marcos Ambrose needed a Top 15 finish to put himself in the running.  On Lap 51, Ambrose and Red Bull Racing drivers Brian Vickers and Kasey Kahne were racing three-wide for position.  Quickly running out of room, Ambrose tagged the rear of the No. 83 Toyota, sending Vickers into Kahne and both RBR drivers into the wall.  Vickers was less than pleased with the incident, turning a hard right into Ambrose’s car under caution on the next lap.  Vickers was invited to the NASCAR hauler after the race to discuss the incident.  He was also told to park his car for a little while to cool down. As a result, Ambrose was out of contention for the wild card spot long before the end of the race. He finished 21st.

Johnson Vs Busch: Round Two   

Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch have had recent history with each other at Pocono Raceway last month, slamming fenders in the closing laps of the race.  Tempers flared yet again under the lights Saturday night, right before the halfway point of the race.  Busch hit Johnson’s bumper while getting into a turn and spun him.  Although it looked as though Busch got in to the turn too hot and slammed on the brakes to avoid wrecking, Johnson didn’t see it as accidental and retaliated 56 laps later.

After the race Busch said, “He’s been able to beat the guys the last five years by out-driving them with what he has for equipment. If he wants to switch equipment, let’s see what we can do. I’m going to beat him fair and square with my Penske Dodge.”  Johnson didn’t seemed too concerned with his comments saying, ”I’m sure I’ll go find him and talk to him and he’ll run his mouth and we’ll go from there.”

Sources say that during an interview with a NASCAR.com reporter Joe Menzer, Busch lost his temper and had to be restrained when asked about the incident with Johnson.  The war with words didn’t end there and continued when the drivers were forced to share the podium in the media center together.

From the looks of it, this battle isn’t going to end any time soon.  Busch is a proven winner and knows how to win a championship.  However, if he’s more concerned with getting “into Johnson’s head”, he should give up contending for the Sprint Cup title now.  Johnson is a five-time champion of this series and it’s almost impossible to get “inside of his head.”  As far as I’m concerned, Kurt Busch is the last thing on Jimmie Johnson’s mind.

Chase Run Down

The top-12 in points are now: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin.  David Ragan did his best to steal the wild card from Hamlin, but fell short finishing the race in fourth.

We head to Chicagoland Speedway next week and I’m sure we’ll see just as much action, if not more.

Carl Edwards was expected to do well at Michigan. in 15 starts there, he has two wins, nine top fives, and 12 top 10s. His overall average finish there was 8.2 leading up the Pure Michigan 400.  In the last two Michigan races, he started 24th and 23rd and finished third and fifth. So, when he qualified 22nd, there wasn’t much to worry about. But, on lap 36, Edwards hit pit road one lap after a restart. The hood was up on the car for a short time before the team pushed the No. 99 Aflac Ford Fusion to the garage with engine trouble. He finished 36th and dropped two points positions.

Greg Biffle, also a two-time Michigan winner, seemed to have high expectations going into this race, especially after winning the pole. He led  for most of the first half of the race and appeared to have a  dominant car. But, once he found himself in traffic, and dirty air, his car slowed. He wasn’t able to contend for the lead, but he did manage to hang out in the top 15. He seemed poised for a top 15 finish before a green white checkered finish juggled the field. He wound up finishing 20th.

Denny Hamlin won last year’s race and the race here in May, but this time around, he had troubles that cost him valuable championship points.  His troubles started when he bounced off the wall on Lap 126 and damaged the left front of his car.  He was forced to pit under green to fix the damage.  Hamlin then suffered a flat tire and had to pit again.  One lap later, he drove the car to the garage to repair the damage.  When he returned, he was 15 laps down in 35th position.  He dropped two positions in the points. he currently sits in 14th position.

Most everyone wanted Dale Earnhardt Jr to end his win-less streak at Michigan, but an ill-handling race-car and bad pit stops didn’t allow that to happen.  Earnhardt qualified surprisingly well in 8th position and stayed in the top-10 for most of the race. He was able to pass cars and seemd to have the car hooked up. But, after a bad pit stop, he began complaining of a loose race car. He suspected the culprit was a bad set of tires. On the next stop, he felt the car was a little better, but the car kept switching between loose and tight. On the caution that set up the green-white-checker, Junior was running ninth. Steve Letarte called him to pit road because he thought that the fresh tires would make a difference. Earnhardt slightly disagreed, but brought it to pit road. On the GWC, Earnhardt got bogged down behind David Reutimann and couldn’t pass cars. He finished 14th.

Despite the hardships, the No. 88 team remains 9th in points standings. Earnhardt also remained optimistic because he felt like their car was fast and they ran in the top 10 all day.

I still feel like Dale Earnhardt Jr and Steve Letarte still have to work on their communication.  The team also needs to improve in the pits.  Earnhardt Jr loses many positions on pit road, which leads to inconsistency among the team.  If they could work out the small kinks they are having, I believe Earnhardt could have a winning team.  Until then, they are going to keep being barely consistent.  Earnhardt’s win-less streak now stands at 116 races.

Eye’s on the Trophy

In this sport it’s hard for team to compete every week.  There’s only a handful of drivers that have a chance of winning races every weekend, and I want to give a shout-out to two of those drivers.

Ever since his win at Pocono Raceway, Brad Keselowski has been unstoppable.  He is racing with a broken ankle and he still remains a contender each and every week.  Keselowski rain in the top-10 all race long and finished in third position.  Leaving Michigan, he gained two spots in the points standings, now 12th.  Brad is just 56 points out of 10th position.  He is the No. 1 Wild Card and is confident in his ability to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Jeff Gordon has finished in the top-10 seven times of the last ten races.  He sits sixth place in points, 60 points behind leader Kyle Busch.  This weekend at Michigan he passed the 22,000 mark for laps led in his NASCAR career.  He may not be the youngest driver out there, but he is the most consistent and he has he sights on that championship trophy.

Kyle Busch had never won a race at Michigan and started the race back in 17th position.  He didn’t crack the top-10 until Lap 58, but by Lap 75 he was already up to fourth place.  With 13 laps to go Busch took the lead from Jimmie Johnson for good.  This is his fourth win this season and he remains first in the points standings, 10 points ahead of Johnson. He clinched his spot in the Chase with the win.

We have only three races to go before the Chase cut-off at Richmond International Raceway.  Who do you think will make the Chase?

If that ends up being the case, who drops out? Which driver currently in the top 12 is the most likely one to drop out? Conversely, which driver currently outside of the top 12 is most likely to get in? Lead-Lap.com set out to find out, based on statistics.

In 2009, three drivers in the Chase after the 13th race fell out before the Chase began. Kyle Busch was in the Chase after the 13th race but lost a 67-point advantage over the next 13 to drop out. Matt Kenseth lost a 58-point advantage over the 13 races leading into the Chase to drop out. And, Jeff Burton lost a 20-point advantage over the 13 races leading into the Chase to drop out.

Kasey Kahne was 66 points out of the Chase after the 13th race, Brian Vickers was 131 points out, and Juan Montoya was 92 points out. All three overcame their deficits to make the Chase.

In 2008, Kahne was in the Chase after the 13th race but he lost an eight-point advantage and fell out 13 races later. Meanwhile, Kenseth made up a 95-point deficit over those 13 races to earn his way in the Chase.

In 2007, Mark Martin was in the Chase after the 13th race. He lost a 26-point advantage over the next 13 races to fall out. That allowed Kurt Busch to make his way into the Chase; he overcame his 88-point deficit. Over those 13 races, though, Martin missed four races because he was racing a part time schedule and sharing his car with Aric Almirola.

In the last three years, Busch’s 67 points is the largest advantage a driver who didn’t make the Chase has had after the 13th race. And, Vickers’ 131-point deficit was the largest to be made up before the Chase.

Applying those numbers to the current Sprint Cup Series points’ standings, this means that Carl Edwards at 59 points ahead of 13th place and Ryan Newman at four points ahead of 13th place could be in danger of falling out of the Chase.

It also means that Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr, Jamie McMurray, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Joey Logano, and David Reutimann are in contention for the one Chase spot that is likely to change because they are each within 125 points of 12th place.

But, who’s likely to overcome their current deficit to earn that spot? Let’s look at the stats from the last three seasons to find out.

Over the next 13 Sprint Cup races, Tony Stewart has the best average finish (10th) of those currently outside looking in. Clint Bowyer is the second best with an average finish of 15th in those races. The remaining drivers in contention are: Dale Earnhardt Jr, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr (each with an 18th-place average), Jamie McMurray (22nd-place average), and David Reutimann (23rd-place average).

Carl Edwards and Ryan Newman are the two drivers in the danger zone (less than 67 points ahead of 13th place.) Edwards has an average finish of 11th over the next 13 races, while Newman has a 17th-place average.

Using the current points standings, that means that Stewart will earn roughly 1,795 points. Edwards will earn 1,746; Bowyer will earn 1,566; Newman will earn 1,461; Logano will earn 1,437*; Earnhardt Jr will earn 1,427*; Truex Jr will earn 1,399*; McMurray will earn 1,250; and Reutimann will earn 1,237.

* Logano, Earnhardt Jr, and Truex have the same average finish over the next 13 but will earn a different number of points because of rounding of their average finishes.

If you factor in wins, Stewart, Edwards, and Logano* are the only ones whose average number of wins over the next 13 is greater than one. In other words, they’re the only ones who have averaged one win per season in the last three seasons over the next 13 races.

* Logano only has stats from last year, but he did win one of the next 13 (New Hampshire Motor Speedway).

Over the next 13 races, Stewart has averaged at least 5 bonus points nearly two-thirds of the time. That means, statistically, he’s likely to get bonus points in nine of the next 13 races. That will give him an additional 45 points. Edwards earns bonus points nearly 60% of the time over the next 13, which is roughly seven races, or 35 points.

Earnhardt Jr earns bonus points nearly half the time, though most of those were in 2007 and 2008. Still that will translate to roughly 30 bonus points in six of the next 13 races. Applying these stats across the board means that Truex will earn 20 bonus points; Newman will earn 15, Bowyer and McMurray will earn 10 apiece; and Logano and Reutimann will each earn 5.

That means that over the next 13 races Edwards will earn 1,781 points, including bonus points. Newman will earn 1,476; Bowyer will earn 1,576; Truex will earn 1,419; McMurray will earn 1,260; Stewart will earn 1,840; Earnhardt Jr will earn 1,457; Logano will earn 1,442; and Reutimann will earn 1,242.

If you take those totals and add them to the current standings, you’ll find that Edwards will hold onto 11th-place in the standings with 3,383 points. Stewart will move up four positions from 16th to 12th, and the final Chase spot with 3,360 points.

Newman, who is currently in the Chase, will drop two spots to 14th, out of the Chase with 3,023 points.

Of course, this is assuming that all drivers keep consistent with their averages, which any fan of NASCAR knows rarely happens.