Letarte said that right now the team is concentrating on racing their way into the Chase. He implied that the team is being cautious because they want to secure their place in the Chase before they’re willing to take some risks and take chances at winning races.

This explains why, in the last few races, when Earnhardt Jr could have stayed out on the final caution and gambled at getting top 5s or top 10s, the team has elected to go the safer route and pit, often coming home around 15th.

When the crew chief change (or driver, to hear HMS describe it) occurred, one of the main goals of the No. 88 team was to make the Chase, Letarte said. They do want to win races, but their main goal was to get into the Chase, so that’s what they’re focused on.

Once their spot in the Chase is secured, Letarte said, they’ll take the gloves off and go back to racing for wins.

Carl Edwards was expected to do well at Michigan. in 15 starts there, he has two wins, nine top fives, and 12 top 10s. His overall average finish there was 8.2 leading up the Pure Michigan 400.  In the last two Michigan races, he started 24th and 23rd and finished third and fifth. So, when he qualified 22nd, there wasn’t much to worry about. But, on lap 36, Edwards hit pit road one lap after a restart. The hood was up on the car for a short time before the team pushed the No. 99 Aflac Ford Fusion to the garage with engine trouble. He finished 36th and dropped two points positions.

Greg Biffle, also a two-time Michigan winner, seemed to have high expectations going into this race, especially after winning the pole. He led  for most of the first half of the race and appeared to have a  dominant car. But, once he found himself in traffic, and dirty air, his car slowed. He wasn’t able to contend for the lead, but he did manage to hang out in the top 15. He seemed poised for a top 15 finish before a green white checkered finish juggled the field. He wound up finishing 20th.

Denny Hamlin won last year’s race and the race here in May, but this time around, he had troubles that cost him valuable championship points.  His troubles started when he bounced off the wall on Lap 126 and damaged the left front of his car.  He was forced to pit under green to fix the damage.  Hamlin then suffered a flat tire and had to pit again.  One lap later, he drove the car to the garage to repair the damage.  When he returned, he was 15 laps down in 35th position.  He dropped two positions in the points. he currently sits in 14th position.

Most everyone wanted Dale Earnhardt Jr to end his win-less streak at Michigan, but an ill-handling race-car and bad pit stops didn’t allow that to happen.  Earnhardt qualified surprisingly well in 8th position and stayed in the top-10 for most of the race. He was able to pass cars and seemd to have the car hooked up. But, after a bad pit stop, he began complaining of a loose race car. He suspected the culprit was a bad set of tires. On the next stop, he felt the car was a little better, but the car kept switching between loose and tight. On the caution that set up the green-white-checker, Junior was running ninth. Steve Letarte called him to pit road because he thought that the fresh tires would make a difference. Earnhardt slightly disagreed, but brought it to pit road. On the GWC, Earnhardt got bogged down behind David Reutimann and couldn’t pass cars. He finished 14th.

Despite the hardships, the No. 88 team remains 9th in points standings. Earnhardt also remained optimistic because he felt like their car was fast and they ran in the top 10 all day.

I still feel like Dale Earnhardt Jr and Steve Letarte still have to work on their communication.  The team also needs to improve in the pits.  Earnhardt Jr loses many positions on pit road, which leads to inconsistency among the team.  If they could work out the small kinks they are having, I believe Earnhardt could have a winning team.  Until then, they are going to keep being barely consistent.  Earnhardt’s win-less streak now stands at 116 races.

Eye’s on the Trophy

In this sport it’s hard for team to compete every week.  There’s only a handful of drivers that have a chance of winning races every weekend, and I want to give a shout-out to two of those drivers.

Ever since his win at Pocono Raceway, Brad Keselowski has been unstoppable.  He is racing with a broken ankle and he still remains a contender each and every week.  Keselowski rain in the top-10 all race long and finished in third position.  Leaving Michigan, he gained two spots in the points standings, now 12th.  Brad is just 56 points out of 10th position.  He is the No. 1 Wild Card and is confident in his ability to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Jeff Gordon has finished in the top-10 seven times of the last ten races.  He sits sixth place in points, 60 points behind leader Kyle Busch.  This weekend at Michigan he passed the 22,000 mark for laps led in his NASCAR career.  He may not be the youngest driver out there, but he is the most consistent and he has he sights on that championship trophy.

Kyle Busch had never won a race at Michigan and started the race back in 17th position.  He didn’t crack the top-10 until Lap 58, but by Lap 75 he was already up to fourth place.  With 13 laps to go Busch took the lead from Jimmie Johnson for good.  This is his fourth win this season and he remains first in the points standings, 10 points ahead of Johnson. He clinched his spot in the Chase with the win.

We have only three races to go before the Chase cut-off at Richmond International Raceway.  Who do you think will make the Chase?

He also posted a runner-up finish in the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway, after losing the lead in the closing laps. There’s no doubt he’s running better this season than the previous two seasons.

But, in the last three races, he’s posted finishes of 19th, 14th, and 12th, respectively. While these results are not as bad as they could be, they aren’t going to keep him in the Chase, which is a cause for concern.

Earnhardt Jr is coming up on a statistically tough set of tracks for him, including Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Infineon Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Pocono Raceway, and Watkins Glen International.

At Watkins Glen, he has a career average finish of 22.9. At Indy and Sonoma, he has slightly better averages: 22.2 and 20.5, respectively.

In the stretch of races from the first Pocono race to the race at the Glen, he has an average finish of 17.9. That stretch of races included Pocono, Sonoma, Daytona International Speedway, Loudon, Pocono again, Indy, and the Glen when Earnhardt Jr entered the Sprint Cup series full time in 2000.

In 2001, Chicagoland Speedway was added to that stretch. In 2002, the early race at Michigan International Speedway was moved into that stretch (after the first Pocono race). This year, Kentucky Speedway replaces the Chicago race in that span.

But, it is still a tough stretch for him. In those 96 races, Earnhardt has posted three wins, 17 top 5s, and 31 top 10s. But, he has also posted 38 finishes of 20th or worse and 19 finishes of 30th or worse. In nearly 40% of those races, he finishes 20th or worse. That’s two out of every five races. That simply isn’t going to get it done.

Over his career, Earnhardt Jr has dropped an average of nearly three points positions from the race before Pocono to the end of the season. Only two times in his career has he actually gained positions during that span: in 2001 he climbed from 11th to eighth in the standings, and in 2002 he climbed from 14th to 11th. Every other time, he has dropped at least one position. Even in his best points years (2003, 2004, and 2006); he has dropped an average of two positions from the first Pocono race to the end of the season.

This comparison, however, is not completely accurate, as the Chase was introduced in 2005 and drastically changed the points standings.

Early in his career, Earnhardt Jr either gained points positions or didn’t lose any in the stretch of races between the first Pocono race and the start of the Chase. (For comparison purposes, we used Earnhardt Jr’s points position after the fall Darlington Raceway race in 2000, when the Cup season was 34 races long.) But he has lost at least one points position in six of the last seven seasons over in this stretch. The worst he has dropped is three positions in 2009. To be in good shape to make the Chase, (if his averages hold up and he repeats his worst performance), he would need to go into Pocono no worse than seventh in points.

But, this year may be the first year since 2007 that he could actually gain positions during this stretch. And if he does, it will be due largely to crew chief Steve Letarte.

Letarte took over crew chief duties for Jeff Gordon at the end of 2005. Since 2006, his first full season with the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports team, Letarte has helped his team finish in the top 10, two-thirds of the time (30 out of 45 races) in this span. He has also led the No. 24 team to three wins in this stretch of races, though those came in 2006 and 2007.

In 2007, Gordon did not finish worse than ninth over this stretch with Letarte on the pit box. In 2010, Gordon finished in the top 10, seven out of the nine races in this stretch. Five of those finishes were in the top 5.

With results like that, it’s hard to express too much concern for Earnhardt Jr’s Chase chances at this point. It’s highly unlikely, even considering the last three races, that Earnhardt Jr will drop six places in the points. It should also be noted that Earnhardt Jr has never missed the Chase when he is in the top 4 in the points heading into Pocono. If the team can maintain their points position at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway, that will leave the No. 88 HMS team in good shape.  

And, if Letarte and Earnhardt Jr are firing on all cylinders over this stretch, we could see Earnhardt Jr overcome one of the biggest obstacles to his championship hopes.

He sits sixth in points, with one top 5 and four top 10s, including a runner-up finish at Martinsville Speedway after he lost the lead to Kevin Harvick with four laps to go. His worst finish this season came in the Daytona 500 when he was involved in an accident during a green-white-checkered finish.

There is no doubt that Earnhardt Jr is running better than he has been lately. But, just how well is he running compared to his previous seasons with HMS? Is this his best year? Let’s take a look.

To start our comparison, we must consider that the Sprint Cup Series schedule has changed since 2008. From 2008 to 2010, the first seven races were run at Daytona, Fontana, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Bristol, Martinsville, and Texas. The first seven races this season were Daytona, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Bristol, Fontana, Martinsville, and Texas. For our comparison, we will look at the seven tracks at which races have already been run this season.

This season, Earnhardt Jr has an average finish of 10.9. In 2008, Earnhardt Jr’s first season with HMS, he had an average finish of 10.1 after the first seven races, but at the seven tracks already run, his average is 11.6. In 2009 and 2010, his average finishes at these tracks were 21.3 and 13.1, respectively. That means his average finish this year is better than his previous years with Hendrick.

In 2008, Earnhardt Jr was slightly better than this season in terms of top 5s and top 10s. In 2008 he had two top 5s and five top 10s at these seven tracks, compared with one top 5 and four top 10s this season.  He had one top 5 and three top 10s at these seven tracks in 2010, so statistically, there doesn’t seem to be a big difference between 2010 and 2011 in terms of top 5s and top 10s.

The biggest difference between Earnhardt Jr’s statistics this season and seasons prior is that his worst finish this season (24th) is much better than his worst finish at these tracks in his previous seasons with HMS: 40th at Fontana in 2008, 39th at Fontana in 2009, and 32nd at Fontana in 2010.

While you can say Earnhardt Jr is running better this season, it’s hard to argue that it is his best season (up to this point) with Hendrick because he had more top 5s and top 10s in 2008. Still, this season he is much more consistent, and he has been avoiding bad finishes. The team also has been able to take an ill-handling car and make it, at the very least, manageable. Much of the credit should go to the new crew chief of the No. 88 team, Steve Letarte.

Earnhardt Jr just completed the third year in a five-year deal that runs through the 2012 Sprint Cup season. Hendrick was quoted as saying:

We’re looking at extending [the contract]. I really like him. I think the world of him. I know he can do it. We just have to get the right combination in, and I think we’re going to have it. I hope we get to race together until he retires … until I retire. I’ll retire first.

Earnhardt Jr said:

The only person that can truly help me get where I need to go starts with me, then it goes to Rick, Steve [Letarte] and those guys in your inner circle every week and in your corner every week. My biggest problem, I think, is my confidence.

The news of contract talks comes after HMS announced that Earnhardt Jr will be paired with crew chief Steve Letarte next season. In a three-crew-chief swap, Earnhardt Jr gets Letarte from Jeff Gordon; Gordon gets Alan Gustafson from Mark Martin; and Martin gets Lance McGrew from Earnhardt Jr.

As part of the restructuring, the No. 88 team will move to the shop with the five-time championship team of Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus. Gordon will move to the shop with Martin.

Lance McGrew, Earnhardt Jr’s crew chief this season, moves from the No. 88 to the No. 5 and driver Mark Martin, who will be entering his final year at HMS in 2011. Alan Gustafson, crew chief for Martin this season, moves from the No. 5 to the No. 24 with Gordon.

The only crew chief-driver combination left in tact was that of five-time Sprint Cup champion, Jimmie Johnson.

Team owner Rick Hendrick said:

This will improve us as an organization, across the board. We had a championship season (in 2010), but we weren’t where we wanted and needed to be with all four teams. We’ve made the right adjustments, and I’m excited to go racing with this lineup.

Earnhardt Jr is  coming off a 21st-place finish in the points, and his second consecutive season missing the Chase. While Letarte and Gordon have won only one race in the last three seasons, Letarte has helped guide the team to the Chase in each of those three seasons.

As a part of the re-alignment, the No. 88 shop will be housed with the championship team of Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus. The No. 24 and Gordon will move to the same facility as Martin and the No. 5.

Hendrick plans to discuss the shakeup on Wednesday discussed the move in more detail on Wednesday. In an Associated Press article, Hendrick said:

This was not a Dale Earnhardt – not a move that we made, this major of a move, because of Dale or his situation. I am excited about making all four teams better. We need to be better across the board. We are not going to leave any stone unturned. … A tremendous amount of thought went into it, and it was not a (decision) from the hip. It’s not one of those things that you can vote on; it’s one of those things you have to pull the trigger and go do it.